PHIL STEELE'S FORECAST
August 30, 2012
Eastern Indiana SportsEvery week I will post my forecasts of all the games involving Top 25 teams. As usual, it includes my computer's projected box score for each game.
Last year the Top 25 forecasts went 210-66 (76%)! On the bottom of the forecasts, I have also listed some Upset Specials for this week.
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#1 USC VS HAWAII
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| HAWAII |
30
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187
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10
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2.8
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-
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| USC |
260 |
387
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53
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2.2
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-
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It's been an unbelievable three years for USC but now they are back at the top of the polls to start the season and arguably have the best starting 22 in the entire country. While this game shouldn't be close there are a couple of interesting storylines as new Hawaii HC Chow was the OC at USC from ‘01-’04 and these two met in Lane Kiffin’s 1st game in ‘10. USC was very thin and beat up and did not tackle in practice the last two weeks of August in ‘10 and it showed as they never trailed but couldn’t shake UH till a td mid-4Q in the 49-36 win on the Islands. UH is 0-7 vs USC, with an avg loss by 35 ppg as the Trojans have avg’d 59 ppg the L/4 meetings. USC does have a trip to the East coast next week and then a revenge game vs Stanford. However UH has just 10 returning st’rs and is changing up its offense from the run and shoot to more of a pro style attack so it will be a learning process with a new QB and young O-line. Coming off two yrs of probation, the Trojans will want to make a statement here to open their season and do so.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: USC 52 HAWAII 14
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#2 ALABAMA VS #8 MICHIGAN (Arlington, TX)
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| MICHIGAN |
158 |
187
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21
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3.0
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-
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| ALABAMA |
193
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240
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30
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1.8
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•
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Without a doubt, the marquee game of the opening weekend. This will be the first regular season game between the two teams as the prior 3 have all come in bowls. UM won the L/gm (‘99 Orange Bowl) 35-34 as Bama missed an xp in OT. Bama did not face a dual threat QB like Denard Robinson LY and has just 5 returning st’rs from the best defense in college football. With that being said there is still no one better than the Saban/Smart combo in the country on the D side and the Tide still have my #3 rated D. UM is a veteran team with 13 returning st’rs and will have RB Toussaint for this one. The biggest matchup edge is Bama’s #1 rated OL vs a rebuilt UM DL with 1 returning st’r and on the other side Saban has raved about his DL depth all Fall camp long. UM only faced two ranked tms away from home LY and was outgained 710-434 in those but got a fortunate win in the bowl vs #17 Virginia Tech. They have faced just 2 Top 10 tms the last 3 yrs and lost those gms by a combined 85-35! While UM QB Denard is dangerous, vet Bama QB McCarron is much improved in his 2nd year as the starter and will have more than enough weapons around him (my #9 off) to secure an impressive opening win here.
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PHIL’S FORECAST: ALABAMA 34 MICHIGAN 17
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#3 LSU VS NORTH TEXAS
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Rushing
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Passing
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Points
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TO’s
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ST
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| NORTH TEXAS |
-7
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182
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6
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2.7
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-
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| LSU |
263 |
315
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50
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1.4
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••
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Unlike LY The defending SEC Champs Tigers start off the season with a lay-up and will want to get the bad taste of the Nat'l Title game out of their mouths. LSU is 4-0 vs NT with an avg win by 46 ppg (+278 ypg) and NT has been held without a td the L/3 being outscored 149-6. One of the key mismatches is new LSU QB Mettenberger vs a North Texas secondary that lost seven of its top 8 players from LY. While the Tigers recently lost their AA CB/PR Mathieu for the ssn, LSU can name the score and will want new QB Mettenberger to gain as much confidence as he can heading into the year with a big game vs Washington on deck
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PHIL’S FORECAST: LSU 41 NORTH TEXAS 3
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